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Posted in: Aquaman, Movies, Netflix, Warner Bros | Tagged: aquaman and the lost kingdom, box office, Rebel Moon
Rebel Moon and Aquaman Prove Success Isn't Just About Rankings
Both Rebel Moon and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom were number one last weekend, but that number doesn't equate to success.
Article Summary
- Rebel Moon tops Netflix on debut weekend but underperforms against other recent releases.
- Aquaman takes box office lead yet falls short in projections and faces tough competition.
- Streaming numbers suggest Zack Snyder's fanbase may not translate into views for Netflix.
- Aquaman's future box office prospects look dim amid stronger performances of rivals.
Over the weekend, two major movies that have massive budgets they are trying to recoup were released. Both of these movies had a lot of weight on their respective shoulders and both of them were going into their release weekends without strong reviews to back either of them up. However, both of the films also came out in the number one spot for what kind of release they were. Rebel Moon took the top spot on Netflix during its release weekend, while Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom took the top spot at the box office. While most people would see these as indications that both of these films are succeeding, as always, things are much more complicated than that.
Rebel Moon And Its Not-So-Strong Debut
For Rebel Moon, the spin going around on various sites is that the film had a "strong debut" on Netflix. However, the numbers do not support that even a little. Rebel Moon pulled in 23.9 million streams on its opening weekend, and while that might be number one for this weekend, eight other movies that were released in 2023 did better than Rebel Moon. The top ten isn't anything to sneeze at for sure, but it also isn't a homerun by any stretch of the word. That 23.9 million looks pretty small compared to Murder Mystery 2 (42.9M), The Mother (42.9M), Extraction 2 (42.8M), or Leave the World Behind (41.7M).
Then there is the boost that Rebel Moon had that those other titles didn't; Rebel Moon was released during prime time hours on Thursday night instead of the very early hours that the other films were released in. It was also released during a holiday weekend when everyone is at home looking for ways to hang out. Christmas is always a major time for movies, look at the box office, and still, the film underperformed. So while Rebel Moon might be number one that opening weekend on Netflix, those initial numbers are not looking promising compared to other 2023 releases.
Aquaman Will Lose Its Number One Spot To A Musical
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom rolled into theaters after months of it looking like Warner Bros. Discovery had forgotten the movie existed. The trailer didn't drop until the middle of September, which is pretty late for a December release, and the film appeared to be getting lost in the hype for the other two films that Warner Bros. was releasing in December. The early box office predictions for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom were not looking so great either, with the early numbers coming in around $50-$60 million. For a film with a budget as big as this one, that is not great.
By the time the dust settled over the holiday weekend, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom came out on top on the weekend but did come in under those already low projections coming in $38-$40 million over the four-day weekend domestically. That was enough to take it to the top, but there is a caveat that needs to be added to that. The Color Purple was released three days later on Christmas Day and absolutely destroyed Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom with an $18.1 million showing, the second-best opening for a movie on Christmas Day in over a decade. So despite the film being the number one for that weekend, it already looks like that is a title that it won't be holding onto very long.
As the box office numbers continue to roll in, Wonka is coming back in to kick Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom out of the top spot. That is even worse for the film than The Color Purple knocking it out because losing to a new release is one thing; losing to a release that has been out for a few weeks is completely different. Not only does it show that Aquaman doesn't have novelty now that word has gotten it, but it also shows that Wonka does, and its strong word of mouth is carrying it through the rest of the winter season.
The Second Weekend, International Box Office, And Beyond
These next couple of weeks are going to be interesting for both Netflix and the box office. For Netflix, they are already attempting to spin that 23.9 million at a strong debut despite the numbers proving otherwise. They are already in too deep with a second movie and a director's cut on the way. There isn't any backing out now. However, how Rebel Moon performs over the next month or so along with the numbers that roll in for the director's cut and the sequel when they are released, will likely be telling on how much freedom Snyder continues to enjoy over at Netflix. The repercussions of Rebel Moon underperforming won't be felt for a long time now since Netflix cannot admit defeat when there are still more movies that have to be hyped later down the line.
The streaming numbers are also more proof of what many have been saying about Snyder's online fanbase; it's not nearly as big as the trending hashtags might make you think. We learned back in 2022 that a large portion of the SnyderCut stuff was fueled by an army of bots, and bots don't equal streaming numbers. These numbers are all the more proof that Netflix has another reason to completely ignore that trying to buy the SnyderVerse is a worthy investment.
As for the box office, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is looking like it's going to have a rough time. The CinemaScore for the film isn't bad, it came in at a B, but compared to other films that are out right now like The Color Purple (A), Migration (A), The Iron Claw (A-), or Wonka (A-), it's pretty clear that the interest likely isn't there. Good word of mouth is how a film survives and thrives beyond its opening weekend, and with so many other good films in theaters right now, there isn't room to be mediocre or bad. Not when we're all broke after the holidays during a recession.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom could fare better internationally, and it has broken $100 million at the worldwide box office, but when you're sitting on a budget north of $200 million before marketing, and that is the number the studio is admitting to? That isn't enough, not by a longshot, and the long-term box office for this film will likely falter within the next week or two. This era of the DC Universe spent 2023 slowly drowning in faltering box office numbers and poor critical consensus. Aquaman closing all of it out feels inevitable.
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