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Is Losers Heading For A Worse-Than-Kick-Ass Opening?

Kick-Ass, based on the Mark Millar/John Romita Jr series from Marvel Comics, expected to open with $30 million plus, opened with just shy of $20 million.

Industry tracking showed a relatively low awareness, juxtaposed with a relatively higher desire to see, with a high variance of interest, mostly from under 25 males, least from over 25 females, and a real gender split, on the day of release.

And it's pretty similar for The Losers, based on the Andy Diggle/Jock series from DC Comics.

On the day of release, Kick-Ass had a total awareness figure of 77% with a desire to see of 42%. However only 39% of women under 25  wanted to see the film and 29% of women over 25. The female contingent is incredibly important for opening a film well, as they are typically the decider in a couple over which film to watch together. Which is why Date Night with similar overall statistics to Kick-Ass did $6 million more opening the week before, because it skewed to the female rather than male.

But tracking on The Losers has 62% overall awareness with 32% desire to see. And only 26% of women under 25 want to see the film and 23% of women over 25.

That's worse than Kick-Ass. On this statistical basis alone, the movie could be looking at at a $15-16 million opening or worse this weekend.

Of course, how well a film does in the charts will depend what it opens against. Kick-Ass lucked out with low-performing A Death At A Funeral, though it was almost beaten to the top spot by the four-week-old How To Train A Dragon 3D.

And The Losers has a similar match. The Back-Up Plan, while scoring a 75% awareness only has 26% definite interest, though a female skew should help it. On this basis, The Losers should get the top spot.

And it's not like it won't make it's money elsewhere. With an estimated budget of $25 million, it should still do okay. The Losers won't make a loss. Just not as much of a win as some would have liked.

In comparison, Iron Man 2 has awareness in the nineteies and interest in the seventies…

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