Posted in: Box Office, Movies | Tagged: disney, masters of the universe, minions and monsters, moana, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, summer movie box office, The Mandalorian and Grogu, the odyssey, toy story 5

Summer Movie Box Office Preview: It's Disney's To Lose

The 2026 Summer Movie Box Office preview is here! What will finish on top? What will bomb? Find out our guesses right here.

Summer Movie Box Office is upon us, and it kicked off in a major way this past weekend with The Devil Wears Prada 2. Some may argue that it actually kicks off on Memorial Day weekend, but I say no. Marvel usually kicks things off the first weekend in May, so we do too. This summer has a lot to live up to, as the box office has been on fire as of late. 2026 is the first year since 2019 that feels like we have people back in theaters in a big way, almost every weekend. March and April were dominated by Project Hail Mary and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, but plenty of other films have opened big and exceeded expectations. This summer movie box office is full of potential blockbusters, but one studio is poised to flex its muscles big time, and that is Disney. Not only do they have two of the most anticipated films of the summer, but they also have their hand in the jar for Sony's big film as well. It is theirs to lose, and I don't think they will. Let's get to the releases and make our predictions, shall we?

Summer Movie Box Office In May: Can Star Wars Recover?

May, as we said, kicked off last week with Prada, and continues this week with Mortal Kombat 2 (May 8). The first one impressed when it opened during the height of COVID, so WB has big hopes for this one. Also opening that day is Hugh Jackman's great family film The Sheep Detectives (May 8), and the James Cameron-directed Billie Eilish concert film (May 8). Curry Barker, who is now prepping a new Texas Chainsaw Massacre film for A24, opens his horror film Obsession (May 15). And one of the summer movie box office's biggest questions is answered on Memorial Day weekend- can Star Wars get back to being the sterling brand in theaters? The Mandalorian and Grogu make the leap from Disney+ to the big screen. While many were excited by the footage shown at CinemaCon, questions remain about how successful the transition will be. Will people show up like they used to for Star Wars? We will find out in a couple of weeks (May 22). Also in May: anticipated horror film Passenger looks to take some of Baby Yoda's lunch (May 22), and A24 bets big on the eerie film The Backrooms (May 29). Nate Bargatze brings the funny in The Breadwinner (May 29).

June Has The Power

I am salivating at the prospect of seeing a new Masters of the Universe film on the big screen again. Amazon MGM Studios has really nailed the marketing for fans, but I am starting to get nervous that non-fans, especially young ones, aren't hooked. It doesn't help that Scary Movie 6 also opens against it that same weekend, which gave me pause when it was announced. But I believe in He-Man, baby. Call me crazy, tell me I have nostalgia-colored glasses on, but I think it works (June 5). Another big battle at the summer movie box office takes place at the end of the month, as WB moved Supergirl up to take advantage of a low-end weekend, only for Paramount to put Jackass: Best and Last on the same date. That is going to eat into that DC money big time, especially since most of the Supergirl marketing has been met with a bit of a shrug (June 26). Two films will dominate the middle of the month. Steven Spielberg gets a weekend all to himself with Disclosure Day (June 12), one of his most anticipated films in years. Then, Toy Story 5 drops. Look, I don't think it looks very good, the trailers are terrible, and it all feels pretty forced. It's Toy Story. It will be massive no matter what (June 19). Also in June: Hugh Jackman plays the famed archer in Death of Robin Hood (June 19), and A24 tries to creep people out with their horror comedy The Invite with Olivia Wilde, Seth Rogen, Penélope Cruz, and Edward Norton (June 26).

July Will Determine The Winner

The summer movie box office usually comes down to July, and this year will be no different. If you have a cinephile in your life, you know where they will be on July 17, as Christopher Nolan follows up his Oscar-winning film Oppenheimer with his take on The Odyssey, starring basically all of Hollywood. The town is so big on this film that nothing is opening against it in its second weekend. The month kicks off with the latest Illumination film, Minions and Monsters. That one actually looks like a lot of fun, and you can't ever bet against those little yellow things (July 1). A week later, Disney releases the live-action version of Moana. Is it too soon for this? Probably. Does Dwayne Johnson look ridiculous in that wig? Yep. Is this going to make a whole bunch of money? Yep again (July 10). We close out July with the MCU and Spider-Man: Brand New Day, arguably the most anticipated film of the summer. The first trailer got everyone in a tizzy, and, like Batman, Spidey means box office. Expect many teases for Avengers: Doomsday as well (July 31). Also in July: the latest Evil Dead film, Evil Dead Burn, looks to make some last summer horror money (July 10), and Angel Studios looks to cash in on America's 250th birthday with Young Washington (July 3).

August Is Throw It Against The Wall Month

August is where the summer movie box office winds down as it moves along, and this year, especially, feels like a "throw it against the wall and see what sticks" month. Probably the biggest movie of the month will be Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie, which will get the last of those family dollars before school is back in session (August 14). This is also the month of comedy, with Super Troopers 3 (August 7), Spa Weekend (August 21), The Wrong Girls (August 14), and Idiots (August 28) all opening. Of those three, Idiots has some breakout potential because of the cast, but yet again, this is a weak year for straight comedies for the summer. Horror also has a big month ahead of the spooky season, with Eli Roth's Ice Cream Man (August 7), the buzzy thriller The End of Oak Street (August 14), and Insidious: Out of the Further (August 21). The big question is at the end of the month, when the much-written-about Looney Tunes film Coyote Vs Acme finally gets its day in the sun. The question is: will anyone actually care (August 28)?

The Box Office Top Ten For Summer 2026

Here is my guess for the top ten this summer. No grosses, just the order.

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
2. Toy Story 5
3. Odyssey
4. Moana
5. Minions and Monsters
6. Mandalorian & Grogu
7. Supergirl
8. Disclosure Day
9. Scary Movie 6
10. Masters of the Universe

That's right, I think Spidey will top the three-film juggernaut that Disney is throwing at us this summer movie box office season. Disney wins overall with three in the top ten, and is helping bring Spidey to theaters with Sony. I also believe Disclosure Day should be an event film this summer, just not on the level of Christopher Nolan at this point. And yes, though everyone else thinks it will bomb, I think He-Man will return and crack the top ten.

Fearless Predictions

I also do these every summer. Let's do five for 2026:

• Supergirl will only make half of what her cousin made worldwide.
• Only the top two films in my top ten will cross the $1 billion mark worldwide.
• No horror film will cross $100 million domestically this summer.
• The lowest-grossing film of the summer will be The Breadwinner.
• Coyote vs Acme will completely bomb and fail to make $35 million domestically.

Happy summer, everyone! It is the best time of the year. What are you excited to see, and how do you see the box office shaking out this year?

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