John Rogers is a writer who has some pretty strong geek cred. He co-created the Jamie Reyes version of Blue Beetle with Cully Hamner, was the creator of one of the best television series ever, Leverage (yes, I'm biased), and developed The Librarians as a television series. That said, he also wrote the screenplay for the Halle Berry 2004 Catwoman film… so no one is perfect.
Bill Mitchell is the host of YourVoice America, and judging by his Twitter header, he is a supporter of President Donald Trump.
Following the surprise victory by Doug Jones over Roy Moore in the Alabama senate race, Mitchell tweeted out what could be called a conspiracy theory, but in the style of "I'm hearing people say…" that Trump likes to use.
Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii)
"I am hearing rumors that black voters from MS were encouraged to cross over into AL and vote. Anyone else hearing this? Anything to it? That might explain the 30% turnout higher than population percentage. Just reporting the rumor."
By MS, he of course means Mississippi and not Microsoft. This is the type of rumor that works to negate the results of an election and tends to grow quickly. Rogers saw Mitchell's tweet and responded his disbelief of the theory based on his experience creating heists and cons on television for a living. Rogers broke it down in great detail over 16 tweets. I condensed them down for readability, but didn't change any of the words. I may have thrown in a comment or two in between.
John Rogers (jonrog1)
"Okay, you racist hack, apparently I have to do this every time. Like all conspiracy theories, this falls apart as soon as one asks "How?""
I get the impression that Rogers may have done this before.
"Let's just go with the most popular right-wing conspiracy, George Soros (because, of course, you blame a Jew, you fucks) bussed in enough out of state black people to win Doug Jones the election. Now he's not going to MAYBE fix an election, he's going to have himself a margin of error, And remember the conspiracy is this gave Jones the WIN, didn't PAD the win. That proves nothing. To get a 20,000 vote margin, you want to give yourself a pad to get OVER what Moore was supposed to win by. Should he have won by 20,000 votes? Does that seem right? Sure, why not, it's a Fermi problem anyway. (Look it up) So we have to find 40,000 votes minimum to get the results we want."
I did look up Fermi Problem — it's an estimation technique named after physicist Enrico Fermi and is used to make good approximate calculations with little or no actual data.
"So apparently the Soros conspiracy finds 40,000 paid votes without anybody noticing. Nobody leaks. Nobody tells a friend. Not a single slip-up. That is some fucking OPSEC."
Operation security… keeping everyone quiet.
"We then have to bus them in. The standard transit bus carries about 45 people. School buses can go higher. Let's say 50. So that's 2 buses per hundred, 20 buses per thousand, that's about 800 buses?"
Look, he's using algebra… no one uses algebra.
"So, right now your brilliant conspiracy has some genius renting 800 buses from, well, how many buses does one company have, say a couple dozen companies, all on the same day, requiring 800 drivers who ALSO have to be in on it. And still. Nobody. Notices. Hey, I'll spot you somehow they go to only the voting places where not a single Moore voter will notice a busload of strangers showing up — of course that means multiple busloads at very few stations. Then these 40,000 or so fake voters — like, the number of troops who hit Utah Beach on D-Day — stroll in and HAVE ID SINCE ALABAMA HAS STRICT ID LAWS, and ARE ALREADY REGISTERED. Holy shit, the conspiracy! Somehow Soros et al had these sleeper voter ID's in place, and not on the inactive list, JUST IN CASE the GOP nominated anybody even remotely beatable. Or they managed to do so between Moore winning the primary and the election. And they did this all under the nose of Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill, a Republican, who's made it his life's work to hunt down voter fraud, and was a vocal supporter of Moore. 20,000-40,000 fake voters, all recruited secretly, paid somehow, transported in hundreds of buses with hundreds of drivers, no witnesses, no leaks, no paper trail, voting in dozens of stations, no witnesses, with 10k forged ID's."
Nathan Ford would call this the Are You Freaking Crazy Job.
"At least have a modicum of dignity and claim the machines were hacked. I'm sorry, I know this is dumb, but I used to write cons & heists for a living. And very few things piss me off like sloppy heist plotting. And racism. So this is a two-fer.
So, you're saying there's a chance.
As far-fetched as this theory may sound, it was one that Moore had his lawyers try to use to stop the certification of Doug Jones as the winner. The theory was tossed out of court by the Judge.