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Posted in: Box Office, Movies | Tagged: barbie, disney, elemental, FAST X, guardians of the galaxy vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1, oppenheimer, paramount, pixar, Summer Box Office, The Flash, the little mermaid, tmnt, universal, Warner Bros
2023 Summer Box Office Preview: The Little Mermaid Will Win Big
Our 2023 Summer Box Office preview is here, and we think The Little Mermaid will be the big winner this year. Check out our top ten!
2023 is the first REAL summer at the box office in four years, since the record-breaking 2019 summer box office that scored mega-hits like the live-action The Lion King, Toy Story 4, Avengers: Endgame, Aladdin, and many more that had the industry saying "What can stop this?". It turned out a worldwide pandemic could indeed stop everything. While 2022 saw theaters back to full capacity and Top Gun: Maverick setting records, a lack of releases at the tail end of the summer and bad second weekends kept the summer from sizzling. Not so in 2023. Almost every weekend has two contenders looking to make their mark, all the way through August this year. As Hollywood finally gets a glut of movies back in theaters, they hope that this year's crop of franchise sequels, animated films, comedies, horror, and a certain date in July will provide fireworks.
If anything has been proven true in the first four months of the year, it is that people do indeed still want to go to theaters, but they are being very picky about what they come out in droves for. The Super Mario Bros. Movie will go on to be the biggest earner of 2023 unless a certain Little Mermaid or the fastest man alive has something to say about it. Coming off a huge blockbuster, the last month of spring is always a great precursor to a great summer in theaters, and it is hard to top Mario. So many films have been overperforming, leading to a $2.6 billion first quarter to build off of. Yet, only seven films grossed over $100 million, one of which was released in December 0f 2022 (Avatar: The Way Of Water). With so many releases stacked against each other this summer, studios and theater owners are praying that people will stretch their dollars as far as they will go. Can we top last summer's $3.3 billion? The battle starts this week.
May: The Little Mermaid Pulls A Top Gun
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 kicks things off this weekend (May 5th) and should do so with a bang. The swan song for James Gunn at Marvel Studios, the film is excellent and should put a band-aid on all the Marvel slander going around these days. After the Guardians say goodbye, Fast X arrives (May 19th), bringing a new villain, played by Jason Momoa, who will surely be a part of the family by the film's end, as they always are. But does he add any box office value? I say no, as he has not had a big earner outside Aquaman yet. Even in a pandemic box office in 2021, Fast 9 still opened to $72 million before grossing $726 million, so fast X will be the most boring top five grosser this summer. This is a lead-up to this year's champion of the summer, as Disney unleashes the live-action version of The Little Mermaid (May 26th). Opening the same weekend as Top Gun: Maverick last year, this is the pick for this summer's biggest film. Really all you have to do is look at how much the live-action remakes of the other Disney Renaissance-era films have made:
The Lion King (2019)- $543 million
Beauty and The Beast (2017)- $504 million
Aladdin (2019)- $356 million
All three animated films are beloved and grossed over $1 billion each worldwide. Arguably, The Little Mermaid is the favorite out of all of them. Throw in controversies galore, a huge groundswell of online support that may actually matter for once, and a talented young star primed for a huge breakout, and you have all the makings of a huge, huge hit. The biggest of the summer, I think.
Also in May: Charlie Day makes his directorial debut with Fool's Paradise (May 12th), Book Club: The Next Chapter will be your mom's favorite summer film, but should also make more than most are expecting (May 12th), Bert Kreischer teams up with Mark Hamill to tell the story of his exploits in Russia in The Machine (May 26th).
June: The Flash Scores Big
June kicks off with a wild card, Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse (June 2nd). The first film is as prestige as an animated film gets, having won numerous awards, including Best Animated Film at the Academy Awards. It scored a modest $190 million, and this should build nicely off that. It is in a very crowded month, though. The very next week, one of the biggest modern franchises in film returns to summer, as Transformers: Rise of the Beasts welcomes the Beast Wars characters into the movie universe (June 9th). Will that inject some life into that franchise? The jury is still out. Bumblebee was the lowest grosser in the franchise, but that also opened in December. Maybe the move back to summer helps. Our first major horror opening is in June, as 20th Century Studios releases Stephen King's adaptation of The Boogeyman wide (June 2nd). One of the biggest questions of the summer and maybe in the industry will also be answered as well in June: Did Disney ruin Pixar? Elemental looks to right the ship, though it's not easy to decipher the concept and damage Bob Chapek did to this once sterling box office powerhouse is working against it (June 16th). Closing out the month is the return of Indiana Jones in The Dial of Destiny, as Harrison Ford says goodbye to one of his most iconic characters (June 30th). I am not sure why Disney didn't claim Father's Day weekend for that years ago.
The biggest June opener is The Flash. Simultaneously, this film has a lot riding on it and feels dead in the water. Delays, legal troubles, release date changes, casting leaks. You name it; this film has had them. The first release date set for this film was March 23rd, 2018. So, they only missed it by four years. Still, as each trailer emerges, momentum seems to be building for this thing to be a monster hit. A big driver is the return of Michael Keaton to the role that made him a mega-star. Everyone I know wants to see this film for him and him alone, and while the early reviews coming out of CinemaCon have been mixed, everyone has said that he steals the movie. The biggest buzz from that con is that this film will rake in cash. I agree, though I wouldn't say I like it. While the controversy about The Little Mermaid is stupid and childish, Ezra Miller's antics make the praise they are getting for their performance feel icky. All that aside, however, expect this to be one of the top earners of the summer.
Also in June: Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx play foul-mouthed dogs in comedy Strays (June 9th), Jennifer Lawrence returns to theaters with raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings (June 23rd), Wes Anderson returns with one of his biggest casts ever in Asteroid City (June 16th), the rules for surviving a horror movie get thrown out the window in The Blackening (June 16th), and it is krakens vs. mermaids in DreamWorks Animation's Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (June 30th).
July: Barbie Vs. Oppenheimer, Choose Your Fighter
A lot of big movies are opening in July, but the only date that matters is July 21st. Ever since we learned that Barbie and Oppenheimer were opening the same day, the online film community has had a field day, and it has been glorious. It is funny, though, as the race for supremacy will not be close box office-wise. I think Barbie will lap Oppenheimer pretty handily overall, though both will make a ton of cash. Oppenheimer looks like a return to form for Christopher Nolan after whatever Tenet was. It will also take over IMAX and other PLF screens that day, boosting its gross. But Barbie will score huge across all demos and should be in the top five for the summer when all is said and done. Never underestimate the power of the female moviegoer, and while I think that the film will play with everyone, women will be going in groups and droves. Curious was the decision by Paramount to open (deep breath) Mission: Impossible- Dead Reckoning Part One the week before (July 12th). While that opening should be big, the next week, it will lose all the PLF screens to Oppenheimer. Maybe they should have pushed it to August.
Two horror films with a shot at making noise this year also open in July, as we get our first Insidious film in a few years with The Red Door (July 7th). That looks creepy, and seeing what first-time director Patrick Wilson brings to the table will be interesting. The one with breakout potential, though, is Talk To Me (July 28th), from directors Danny and Michael Philippou. That one has been the talk of festivals for months and has them in high demand in Hollywood. The sky is the limit if that one hits hard. For family chills, Disney attempts to make us laugh as we are scared with another Haunted Mansion film (July 28th). That trailer did not go over well, but even those two minutes were better than the last attempt.
Also in July: The summer's most promising comedy from a quality standpoint is Joy Ride (July 7th). It features a great cast and has gotten rave reviews so far at places like SXSW and CinemaCon.
August: Movies Are Actually Coming Out!
Summer 2022 actually ended with the release of Bullet Train on August 5th. After that, studios ran out of films to open wide, and we went through a five-week drought without a wide opening to speak of; not so in 2023, as all month-long films look to go out with a bang, starting with the return of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles in Mutant Mayhem (August 2nd). Borrowing a lot from Spider-Verse, this looks like a ton of fun, and I think it is a sleeper late in the game. That same day though, is a film we haven't seen much from yet, as The Meg 2: The Trench looks to build off the $500 million gross of the first film. You read that right. The week after sees a big gamble from Sony, they release Neill Blomkamp's Gran Turismo film into theaters (August 11th). The trailer came out this week, and it looks way better than most thought. Our last big horror release of the summer comes that same day as The Last Voyage of The Demeter puts a bunch of sailors on a boat with Dracula. Closing out the summer box office is another possible sleeper, as DC gives us Blue Beetle (August 18th). This was initially slated to be an HBO Max original, and while some have said it looks cheap, I'm afraid I have to disagree. The trailer gave me big-time Spider-Man vibes, and star Xolo Maridueña is primed and ready for a breakout following his success as Miguel on Cobra Kai.
The Summer Box Office Top Ten, From The Little Mermaid to Oppenheimer
So, I already told you I think The Little Mermaid will be topped. But what about the rest of the top ten? I think to make it this year, you will have to get to the $150 million mark. A couple of the above films should do that opening weekend. Here is the order as I see it:
- The Little Mermaid
- The Flash
- Barbie
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Fast X
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
- Mission: Impossible- Dead Reckoning Part One
- Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
- Strays
- Oppenheimer
I do not see Transformers cracking the top ten; I think that franchise is still on a downturn, and the Beast Wars fans will not be enough to propel it past others on this list. I also think the damage is done with Pixar, and as much as it pains me, Elemental will fall short of even minor expectations. I believe that of the comedies coming this summer, Joy Ride looks like it will be the best movie, and I think it will make boffo dollars, but Strays has a better release date, a more recognizable cast, and, well, dogs. As for the rest of the comedies…man. What a sorry state we are in when these are our best offerings. Go ahead: and watch the trailers. They look pretty bad. Also, no horror will crack the top ten for the first time in a couple of summers. It is just way too crowded with big tentpoles to penetrate the list. I still think Insidious and especially Talk To Me will be very successful, however.
As far as bombs, I wouldn't say I like wishing failure on anything when it comes to the box office, but my three headscratchers this summer are Haunted Mansion, No Hard Feelings, and Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken. Haunted Mansion is a tricky concept to start with, but that release date is big trouble, as it opens on the second weekend for Oppenheimer and Barbie and a week before TMNT and The Meg 2. Ouch. Double ouch that it comes on the heels of The Little Mermaid. Even with its funny shot at The Little Mermaid in the trailer, Ruby Gillman looks like a cheap Netflix film. It also has a terrible release date, going up against Indiana Jones. Ouch again. But my pick for the biggest bomb of the summer is No Hard Feelings, the Jennifer Lawrence comeback film, and one of the most unfunny trailers I have seen in a long time. A cringy concept, a star that doesn't match the material, and tons of gallows humor that doesn't look funny in the slightest; I think this has stinker written all over it.
So, what are your pics for the top ten of the summer? Do you agree with me? Do you think I am nuts? What films are you excited to see this summer? Catch me here every Sunday talking box office numbers as we see how I do, predictions-wise. If you want to yell at me about your irrational hate for The Little Mermaid, you can do so here.
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