Maybe you're wondering why we're doing our Oscars predictions now, and not closer to the awards themselves. Well, today is the very first day the voting members of the academy can cast their ballots for their picks, so a timely reminder of the nominees in each of the main categories seemed like a good idea.
There have been some notable award shows since the official list of nominees were announced, and while that isn't really changing any of our predictions, it does sort of give more credence to the ones we think will take home the statues during the 90th Annual Academy Awards.
For Technical Achievements:
Blade Runner: 2049- Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
Beauty and the Beast- Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
Darkest Hour- Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
Dunkirk- Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
Shape of Water- Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau
Who we think will win- Shape of Water
Who we'd like to win- Blade Runner: 2049
Blade Runner: 2049- Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour- Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk- Hoyte Van Hoytema
Mudbound- Rachel Morrison
Shape of Water- Dan Laustsen
Who we think will win- Blade Runner: 2049 because Roger Deakins kicked so much ass with bringing the feel of the original classic to the new vision.
Who we want to win- This is a tough race, because it's a historical one that we'd love to see go all the way. Rachel Morrison (the first woman ever nominated in the category in 90 fucking years) is on the board with Mudbound, and we'd love to see her take the statue. Darkest Hour is my personal pick, because again, the film was so beautifully put together and presented.
Beauty and the Beast- Jacqueline Durran
Darkest Hour- Jacqueline Durran
Phantom Thread- Mark Bridges
Shape of Water- Luis Sequeira
Victoria and Abdul- Consolata Boyle
Who we think will win- Phantom Thread is pretty much a sure win for this, with it's beautifully constructed gowns and immaculately tailored tuxes. Not the most original of designs, but wonderfully executed.
Who we want to win- It's a shame really that Black Panther didn't release in the nominations window for this year, but we're fully expecting it to sweep some categories for the 2019 Oscars.
Baby Driver- Julian Slater
Blade Runner: 2049- Mark Mangini, Theo Green
Dunkirk- Alex Gibson, Richard King
Shape of Water- Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
Star Wars: The Last Jedi- Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood
Who we think will win- we're equally torn on our guess and who we'd like to win this, because both Dunkirk and Blade Runner: 2049 are likely recipients.
Baby Driver- Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
Blade Runner: 2049- Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
Shape of Water- Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
Dunkirk- Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
Star Wars: The Last Jedi- Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick
Who we think will win- pretty much same answer on editing, as Dunkirk and Blade Runner: 2049 both showed equal prowess and genius with their sound design and editing.
Dunkirk- Hans Zimmer
Star Wars The Last Jedi- John Williams
Phantom Thread- Jonny Greenwood
Shape of Water- Alexandre Desplat
Three Billboards- Carter Burwell
Who we think will win: It's going to be Desplat, who has picked up the win at every awards ceremony in this cycle.
Who we want to win: Yeah, it's weird that Blade Runner wasn't nominated, but it wasn't as intense of a score. So, we'll go with Dunkirk.
"Mighty River" from Mudbound- Mary J. Blige
"Mystery of Love" from Call Me by Your Name- Sufjan Stevens
"Remember Me" from Coco– Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
"Stand Up For Something" from Marshall– Diane Warren, Common
"This is Me" from The Greatest Showman– Benj Pasek, Justin Paul
Who we think will win: "This Is Me" even though I personally hope to not hear it again after this year.
Who we want to win: "Mighty River"
Achievement Visual Effects:
Blade Runner: 2049- John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2- Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
Kong: Skull Island- Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
War for the Planet of the Apes- Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist
Star Wars: The Last Jedi- Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan
Who we think will win: Blade Runner, with a pretty even shot that Apes may end up with it instead.
Baby Driver- Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
Dunkirk- Lee Smith
I, Tonya- Tatiana S. Riegel
Shape of Water- Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards- Jon Gregory
Who we think will win: Shape of Water
Who we would like to win: I, Tonya. No really, hear me out- the pretty seamless matching of the jumps (not performed by Robbie) and the skating (performed by Robbie) were awesome.
Makeup and hairstyling:
Darkest Hour- Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
Victoria and Abdul- Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
Wonder- Arjen Tuiten
Who we think will win: Darkest Hour, hands down. The amazing transformation of Oldman into the bulldog Churchill was spot freaking on. The wigs alone (made from baby hair) are their application worlds above what we've seen lately.
It *is* strange that the incredible Fish Man design from Shape of Water wasn't nominated, there must be a reason.
Actress supporting role:
Mary J Blige for Mudbound
Allison Janney for I, Tonya
Leslie Manville for Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer for Shape of Water
Who we think will win: Laurie Metcalf. Just because Janney has been winning this category at pretty much all the shows doesn't mean the academy voters will follow suit. They look for different things in their statue worthy performances, and although we did really love her in the role, we think Metcalf has this one.
Who we would like to win: Allison Janney. Forever CJ Cregg in our hearts. We would have LOVED to see Kristin Scott Thomas get a nomination for her performance of Clementine Churchill in Darkest Hour.
Actor Supporting Role:
Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards
Richard Jenkins for Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer for All The Money In The World
Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards
Who we think will win: Richard Jenkins. Sure, again, Rockwell has been winning every time in this category, the difference in voters may have a big impact here.
Who we want to win: I would love it if Jenkins won, I'll admit it. While I didn't love Shape of Water as much as my colleagues and friends, his performance (other than Doug Jones) was the highlight of the film for me.
Call Me By Your Name- James Ivory
Logan- Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
The Disaster Artist- Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
Molly's Game- Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound-Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Who we think will win: Logan. No really, we're hoping this takes it because as a film, it was a monumental thing in the superhero genre. Much closer to a No Country For Old Men rather than a comic book thing.
Get Out- Jordan Peele
Lady Bird- Greta Gerwig
The Big Sick- Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
Shape of Water- Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards- Martin McDonagh
Who we think will win: It's likely to be McDonagh for Three Billboards, since that seems to be striking a chord.
Who we would like to win: Get Out
Performance Actor Leading Role:
Timothy Chalamet for Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out
Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel, Esq.
This is probably the category I am the most torn on for reasons I've already mentioned. The Oscars voters are looking for different things than lets say the BAFTAS and the Golden Globes. This is Daniel Day-Lewis's final film he's said, and that might make him someone the academy chooses to honor with his performance. Daniel Kaluuya, however, did deliver a pretty stunning performance in a surprise hit, and voters may pick him.
As you can probably guess from my previous coverage and mentions, I would REALLY like to see Gary Oldman win this. It's only his second Oscar nomination in all the years he's been acting, and he really excelled as Winston. This is his year, I feel, and hopefully he'll continue to sweep this category.
Performance Actress Leading Role:
Sally Hawkins for Shape of Water
Frances McDormand for Three Billboards
Margot Robbie for I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird
Meryl Streep for The Post
Who we think will win: It'll be Frances, whom the academy loves, in a role that was written for her.
Who we would like to win: Margot Robbie was good as Tonya Harding, and the film's surprise ending really brought home her chops.
Achievement in Directing:
Dunkirk– Christopher Nolan
Get Out– Jordan Peele
Lady Bird– Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread– Paul Thomas Anderson
Shape of Water– Guillermo del Toro
Who we think will win: It's super likely this award will fall to Guillermo.
Who we would like to win: Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele and not just because they're the minories in the category. Jordan took such a strong concept film and turned it into a hit, without really the studio backing him up. Greta took a coming of age tale and made it beautiful and relatable to audiences, and we really love A24 films.
Call Me By Your Name
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing Missouri
Who we think will win: Three Billboards.
Who we would like to win: Get Out. (Ok yes but I personally would love to see Darkest Hour win because as a whole, the film encapsulates what so often wins this category- acting, script, directing, production, and message.)
The 90th Academy Awards take place on Sunday March 4th, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, and will be broadcast live on ABC.