Magic: The Gathering "Arena Tutor" App Boasts Predictive Win Rates

Magic: The Gathering, the premier trading card game created by Wizards of the Coast, has been given notoriety as the most complex TCG in the world, and even managed to consistently stump famed AI program Deep Blue, according to Newsweek. But one website claims they have an app that can predict the outcome of players' draft matches even before a game has been played.

A screencap of the deck construction screen from Arena Tutor.
A screencap of the deck construction screen from Arena Tutor.

Draftsim, a third-party website that boasts an algorithm that's able to simulate Limited environments for Magic, has developed an application called Arena Tutor. This app takes a player's draft deck and analyzes it to determine how strong the deck is in the environment, and even predicts the total number of game wins the deck will achieve in Best-of-One matches.

There are, of course, some caveats and limitations to how strong this predictive technology can be. As it stands, players can only submit 40-card draft decks if they want a prediction by Arena Tutor. The reason for this is that so many players submitted decklists with only forty cards that the algorithm really only functions with this number in mind. There is no serious initiative by Draftsim to extend this to other formats like Standard, let alone Commander. Sorry, EDH fans!

Furthermore, the algorithm, once functioning, is not by any means foolproof. There is a standard deviation of about plus or minus a game. As a result, the models representative of the games these decks could win or lose aren't at all perfect.

Another screencap from Arena Tutor, this time showcasing the analysis tool.
Another screencap from Arena Tutor, this time showcasing the analysis tool.

Finally, this sort of technology is probably not workable for use in a paper Magic setting because put simply, it would take far too long for a full decklist to be submitted for analysis in the midst of a competitive event. What do you think about this new, frankly unbelievable tech? Do you think that Arena Tutor will revolutionize the way we draft Magic: The Gathering? Let us know what you think of Arena Tutor in the comments below!

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About Joshua Nelson

Josh Nelson is a Magic: The Gathering deckbuilding savant, a self-proclaimed scholar of all things Sweeney Todd, and, of course, a writer for Bleeding Cool. In their downtime, Josh can be found painting models, playing Magic, or possibly preaching about the horrors and merits of anthropophagy. You can find them on Twitter at @Burning_Inquiry for all your burning inquiries.
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