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Posted in: Box Office, Movies | Tagged: jurassic world rebirth, lilo and stich, Summer Box Office 2025, superman, the fantastic four: first steps, weapons
Summer Box Office Preview: When Dinosaurs Rule The Earth…Again
It's finally here! Our annual Summer Box Office guide & predictions have arrived, and we think Jurassic World Rebirth will be the big winner.
Article Summary
- Jurassic World Rebirth is predicted to dominate the 2025 summer box office, continuing the franchise's streak.
- Major franchises return, with Marvel, DC, Mission: Impossible, and How to Train Your Dragon all vying for top spots.
- Diverse lineup includes beloved comedies, horror, live-action remakes, and potential breakout originals.
- Six bold predictions and a month-by-month preview highlight key trends and expected box office winners.
Summer box office is the grandest time of the year, when every release is a matter of life or death, feels important, and can make or break the year in theaters. It brings us all together, and is the one time of the year when everyone gets excited about the greatest gift in the world: going to the movies. Sometimes I think we lose sight of how special it is that no matter what is going on in the world, or how we disagree with someone about just about everything else, we can always find common ground in that air conditioned auditorium, munching on popcorn, and watching the biggest blockbusters Hollywood can offer us. I find comfort in that, and this summer in particular has some of the strongest offerings since the summer before the pandemic shutdowns, that mythical summer of 2019.
Summer Box Office 2025 Calendar & Predictions
After taking a summer off, Marvel Studios and the newly christened DC Studios are back full force. Some of the most beloved action franchises of the last three decades are back with spinoffs and possibly final offerings. Horror has had a rough start to 2025, but it is the one genre you can never count out. While this summer's box office lacks a surefire animation hit, there are plenty of family films that can make up for it. Even comedy is making a comeback this year. But in the end, it will be a franchise reinventing itself yet again that will rule them all. Below is the preview for the summer, month by month, followed by my top ten predictions, six fearless predictions, and more.
May: Something For Everyone
It feels right to kick off the summer box office with Marvel Studios. Last year, it felt strange to kick off with something else, and Thunderbolts* (May 2) looks like a fun return to form for the superhero powerhouse. This month has a bit of everything for everyone, the most diverse month of releases on the schedule. A24 gives us what could be a breakout comedy with Tim Robinson/Paul Rudd's comedy Friendship (May 9), Final Destination: Bloodlines tries to become the first horror breakout of the year (May 16), before a Memorial Day smackdown we haven't seen in some time. That weekend is the first showdown of the summer, as Disney opens the live-action Lilo & Stitch against Tom Cruise and what is being billed as the final time we will see Ethan Hunt on screen in Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (May 23). Also in May: Cobra Kai fans flood theaters as Karate Kid: Legends continues the franchise (May 30)…Blake Lively and Anna Kendrick reunite for Another Simple Favor (May 2)…Juliet & Romeo give us a musical spin on a classic (May 9)…The Philippous follow-up to Talk To Me tries to terrify us, as Bring Her Back looks every more horrifying than their first film (May 30)…The Weeknd and Jenna Ortega star in thriller Hurry Up Tomorrow (May 16)…Wes Anderson's latest film, The Phoenician Scheme, stars maybe the best ensemble cast of the summer box office season (May 30).
June: The Experimental Month
Sure, June features a bunch of sequels and spinoffs, but it is also the month when studios take the most risks. Universal jumps into the live-action remake pool with How to Train Your Dragon (June 13), a film that has been playing so well to audiences that they already announced a sequel last month. That film will vie for the top spot this summer and is serious competition. Pixar gives us one of the only big animated films of the summer season, with the original film Elio (June 20). This is a high-concept film with a confusing trailer, but the animation is beautiful, and the jokes in the trailer land — never count out Pixar. Horror also hits hard in June as a pair of sequels, one long-awaited and one looking to keep a phenomenon going, open a week apart. First, 28 Years Later brings back Danny Boyle and Alex Garland to continue one of the most beloved franchises in the genre (June 20). Then, a week later, Blumhouse tries to catch lightning in a bottle again with M3GAN 2.0 (June 27). Also in June: Brad Pitt and Joseph Kosinski try to capitalize on the F1 craze (June 27)…Ana De Armas stars in the first John Wick spinoff, Ballerina (June 6)…Mike Flanagan adapts another Stephen King story with The Life of Chuck (June 6)…Celine Song's follow-up to Past Lives, Materialists, with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans, tries to break out (June 13).
July: The Smackdown We Are All Waiting For
This is what the summer box office is all about. Three out of four weeks in July feature at least one film that could win the summer. It all starts on July 2 with Jurassic World Rebirth, the seventh film in the franchise and one they are promising will harken back to that first film from 1993. One week later, we all look up as Warner Bros relaunches the DC Comics film franchise with James Gunn and his Superman film (July 11). To say expectations for that one are sky high would be the biggest understatement of 2025. July 18 sees the Smurfs try to make bank between two of the biggest openings of the summer box office, while I Know What You Did Last Summer tries to follow the Scream playbook to success. Finally, we wrap up July with the most anticipated film of the summer, The Fantastic Four: First Steps (July 25). Also of note: On July 25, we will see the debut of Happy Gilmore 2 on Netflix. I mention that for two reasons: first, there is still a chance they come to their senses and give it a short run in theaters. Second, seeing how much its debut eats into the FF audience will be interesting. Like it or not, that is a big deal release on streaming, inarguably the biggest of the summer. It will affect the box office negatively.
August: Throwing Things Against The Wall
After a couple of years of organized big releases in the final month of the summer, this August is chaos. It has the widest releases in one summer month, and the most question marks. One film that everyone should be looking forward to, especially after the trailer drop, is Zach Creeger's Weapons (August 8). That has some serious breakout potential. Also on the horror front, Cineverse tries to strike gold again by rescuing and releasing the Toxic Avenger remake (August 29). Universal tries to sneak in some big animated film dollars with The Bad Guys 2 (August 1), and The Naked Gun relaunches the action comedy franchise with Liam Neeson in the lead role (August 1). However, in what may be the biggest film of the month, Disney reunites Lindsay Lohan and Jamie Lee Curtis in the long-gestating sequel Freakier Friday (August 8). Also in August: NEON opens body horror film Together with real-life married couple Dave Franco and Alison Brie (August 1)…Bob Odenkirk returns as Hutch in Nobody 2 (August 15)…Ethan Coen's Honey Don't! goes from Cannes to a wide release with an all-star cast (August 22), the remake of War of the Roses, titled The Roses, stars Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Coleman at their most outlandish (August 29).
And The Winner Is….
As for my top ten at the summer box office for 2025, here it is:
- Jurassic World Rebirth
- Lilo & Stitch
- The Fantastic Four: First Steps
- How To Train Your Dragon
- Superman
- Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
- Freakier Friday
- Thunderbolts*
- M3GAN 2.0
- Weapons
Jurassic World Rebirth will win the summer. All three of the last trilogy made over $1 billion worldwide, and finished either on top or in the top three in the summers they opened. That trend will continue. Lilo & Stitch will clean up for Disney and has a great chance at $1 billion worldwide. In the superhero smackdown, Superman will be successful, but Fantastic Four is THE Marvel Studios film people have been waiting for. Besides X-Men, this is the last big swing they can take, and it looks like they nailed it. How To Train Your Dragon will also thrive, and Disney scores with teens and parents alike with Freakier Friday. Finally, I think M3GAN 2.0 will ride that PG-13 rating to success, and Weapons will be the breakout hit of the summer, solidifying Zach Creeger as the biggest up-and-coming name in horror.
Here are six fearless predictions for the 2025 summer box office:
- July will be the biggest in history, beating 2011.
- Toxic Avenger will open to at least $20 million.
- Elio will open small and have an Elemental-type run and finish as a success.
- 28 Years Later will not make over $100 million domestically.
- F1 will not crack the top ten for the summer.
- A comedy will make over $50 million domestically.
That is what I think. What do you think will happen this summer's box office season? Which films are you most excited for? Which do you think has a chance to bomb? How wrong do you think I am? Reach out and let me know.
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